Shashank Joshi, an Associate Fellow at the London-based think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), offers a long-term assessment of Libyan Leader Muammar Gaddafi’s prospects of political survival in a March 13, 2011, BBC post headlined “Libya crisis: no 'happy ending' for Colonel Gaddafi.”According to Mr. Joshi,
The rebels, then, cannot prevail in the foreseeable future. The core security forces commanded by the regime remain intensely loyal and well-armed, so a coup is equally unlikely.Mr. Joshi said, “We should be wary of concluding that, just because Gaddafi is doomed to a tenuous grip on Libya, the rebels have any better chance of attaining their goals through military struggle.
But this counter-offensive [currently underway in Libya by Mr. Gaddafi] should not obscure the fact that Col Gaddafi's political future will be an unhappy one.