March 2011 Archives

March 13, 2011

‘Gaddafi's Political Future Will be An Unhappy One’

Shashank Joshi, an Associate Fellow at the London-based think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), offers a long-term assessment of Libyan Leader Muammar Gaddafi’s prospects of political survival in a March 13, 2011, BBC post headlined “Libya crisis: no 'happy ending' for Colonel Gaddafi.”According to Mr. Joshi,

The rebels, then, cannot prevail in the foreseeable future. The core security forces commanded by the regime remain intensely loyal and well-armed, so a coup is equally unlikely.

But this counter-offensive [currently underway in Libya by Mr. Gaddafi] should not obscure the fact that Col Gaddafi's political future will be an unhappy one.

Mr. Joshi said, “We should be wary of concluding that, just because Gaddafi is doomed to a tenuous grip on Libya, the rebels have any better chance of attaining their goals through military struggle.
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March 7, 2011

Is Al Qaeda Trying to Take Credit for Arab Revolt?

Al Qaeda is trying to muscle its way into the unrest in some Arab countries,” according to Musa Keilani, writing in the March 6, 2011 edition of The Jordan Times. According to Mr. Keilani:

The group would like to claim that it had engineered the revolts in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, but it cannot do so since it is clear that it had very little to do, if anything at all, with the rebellions that brought down the regimes of Zine Al Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak of Egypt.
Mr. Keilani contends, “It is only a matter of time before Libya’s Muammar Qadhafi will be toppled, but Al Qaeda is not in the picture, although the Libyan strongman is trying to tell the West that Libya is an ally in the battle against Al Qaeda and that the group influenced a few “misguided” Libyan youths who wish to oust him from power. It does not need much imagination to see through Qadhafi’s self-deceptive declaration”.

To read the entire article, please see “Priorities for Post-Revolt Leaders.”

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